## MONETARY POLICY / INFLATION (US / IRAN WAR) **Headline:** Economists lift US inflation outlook; next Fed cut pushed to December toss-up - PCE inflation seen **+3.9% y/y in 2Q** (was **+3.6%** last month); **inflation forecasts raised through early 2027** - **Core PCE** also marked up; **both PCE and core PCE expected to stay above 3% through year-end** - Fed timing: economists now **evenly split on a December cut** (prior survey favored **October**) - Growth/recession: **GDP and consumer spending ~2%** in 2026; **12-month recession odds down to 25%** - Labor: **payroll growth estimates nudged up**; unemployment still seen **peaking at 4.5% in 3Q** - Quote: “**This is deja-vu all over again, with the Fed and the markets concerned the energy price spike will generate inflation, just as they feared tariffs would last year**,” and “**With consumers in a weakened state, it’s much more likely they will respond by cutting spending on other items as they pay more at the pump.**”

## TECH / AI (US) — *Salesforce “Agentforce” demos overstate what’s live* - Promo videos show Agentforce doing real actions (refill prescriptions, book appointments, rebook flights, place/modify orders), but **most showcased “agentic” functionality isn’t live yet** at featured customers (University of Chicago Medicine, Williams-Sonoma, Finnair). - **Why delayed:** “product glitches” + **internal compliance sign-offs**; customers rolling out “in phases.” - Salesforce defense: forward-looking marketing is normal; Benioff: **“Whatever technology we have ever marketed, we have always delivered,”** and **“I don’t want any customer to ever call me and say — ‘hey, I thought I was buying this, but it’s not available,’”**. - Reality today: Agentforce often works for **Q&A / info intake**, but **falters on higher-stakes actions**; analyst: **“People have this fear that the AI is going to run off in the middle of the night and refund a bunch of transactions or run up a huge bill.”** - Adoption/revenue data: **29,000 Agentforce deals**, **$800M ARR**; examples of measurable impact exist (SharkNinja says **service calls down 20%**; Adecco uses it for **tens of thousands** of initial screeners). - Go-to-market shift: messaging moving from “easy to deploy” to **“Building agents is hard.”** Salesforce offering **free/discounted technical help**, pushing data-readiness tooling (incl. **$8B Informatica acquisition**) and tying sales comp more to **usage** vs bookings. - Market backdrop: Salesforce framed as symbol of “SaaSpocalypse”; stock **-21% in 2025**, **-30% this year** (peers also down).

### OTHER (CHINA MARKETS / AI) **Headline:** China exchanges probe AI-driven stock surges; question companies, AI-heavy funds on “hidden risks” - Shanghai & Shenzhen exchanges **asked listed firms to clarify** whether their core business is meaningfully linked to AI and whether disclosures were clear. - Regulators **queried ETF/fund managers** with heavy AI exposure to **disclose valuation methods**, justify holdings, and explain **risk management** amid a valuation/earnings disconnect. - State media (Economic Information Daily/Xinhua) warned of **“hidden risks”** from AI investing, citing **“sky-high valuations”** vs uncertain fundamentals and “AI meme stocks.” - Regulators found some rallying firms **“lack substantial AI-related business”** despite benefiting from retail buying. - **20+ mainland China & Hong Kong companies** issued AI-related clarification statements this month. - Example: Wei Long Grape Wine denied rumors of an “injection of computing power assets”; shares then fell **up to the 10% limit** Friday.

## Theme: OTHER — AI COSTS / ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE PRICING **Headline:** Microsoft drops Anthropic Claude Code internally as token pricing blows up budgets - Microsoft canceled internal Claude Code licenses this week due to **untenable token-based billing**. - Uber CTO memo: company **burned through its entire 2026 AI budget in four months**. - **US AI software prices up 20%–37%**. - GitHub (Microsoft-owned) **dropping flat-rate plans** in favor of **usage-based billing** across products.